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Deterrence by Detection: Making Surveillance Do Coercion's Work

Jun 24, 2026 by J. Callas

Deterrence by detection inverts the usual logic: instead of threatening punishment, it removes the aggressor's expectation of surprise. Persistent surveillance, rapidly declassified and published, forces an adversary to plan against an audience.

The declassification muscle

The hard part is institutional, not technical: intelligence agencies must release imagery in hours, accepting source risk, for the deterrent to function. States that cannot declassify quickly own sensors, not deterrence.


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